Syrian rebels take control of Damascus Palestinian camp

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Syrian rebels took full control of the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp on Monday after fighting raged for days in the district on the southern edge of President Bashar al-Assad‘s Damascus powerbase, rebel and Palestinian sources said.

The battle had pitted rebels, backed by some Palestinians, against Palestinian fighters of the pro-Assad Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC). Many PFLP-GC fighters defected to the rebel side and their leader Ahmed Jibril left the camp two days ago, rebel sources said.

“All of the camp is under the control of the (rebel) Free Syrian Army,” said a Palestinian activist in Yarmouk. He said clashes had stopped and the remaining PFLP fighters retreated to join Assad‘s forces massed on the northern edge of the camp.

The battle in Yarmouk is one of a series of conflicts on the southern fringes of Assad’s capital, as rebels try to choke the power of the 47-year-old leader after a 21-month-old uprising in which 40,000 people have been killed.

Government forces have used jets and artillery to try to dislodge the fighters but the violence has crept into the heart of the city and activists say rebels overran three army stations in a new offensive in the central province of Hama on Monday.

On the border with Lebanon, hundreds of Palestinian families fled across the frontier following the weekend violence in Yarmouk, a Reuters witness said.

Syria hosts half a million Palestinian refugees, most living in Yarmouk, descendants of those admitted after the creation of Israel in 1948, and has always cast itself as a champion of the Palestinian struggle, sponsoring several guerrilla factions.

Both Assad’s government and the mainly Sunni Muslim Syrian rebels have enlisted and armed divided Palestinian factions as the uprising has developed into a civil war.

“NEITHER SIDE CAN WIN”

Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa said in a newspaper interview published on Monday that neither Assad’s forces nor rebels seeking to overthrow him can win the war.

Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim in a power structure dominated by Assad’s Alawite minority, has rarely been seen since the revolt erupted in March 2011 and is not part of the president’s inner circle directing the fight against Sunni rebels. But he is the most prominent figure to say in public that Assad will not win.

Sharaa said the situation in Syria was deteriorating and a “historic settlement” was needed to end the conflict, involving regional powers and the U.N. Security Council and the formation of a national unity government “with broad powers”.

“With every passing day the political and military solutions are becoming more distant. We should be in a position defending the existence of Syria. We are not in a battle for an individual or a regime,” Sharaa was quoted as telling Al-Akhbar newspaper.

“The opposition cannot decisively settle the battle and what the security forces and army units are doing will not achieve a decisive settlement,” he said, adding that insurgents fighting to topple Syria’s leadership could plunge it into “anarchy and an unending spiral of violence”.

Sources close to the Syrian government say Sharaa had pushed for dialogue with the opposition and objected to the military response to an uprising that began peacefully.

In a veiled criticism of the crackdown, he said there was a difference between the state’s duty to provide security to its citizens, and “pursuing a security solution to the crisis”.

He said even Assad could not be certain where events in Syria were leading, but that anyone who met him would hear that “this is a long struggle…and he does not hide his desire to settle matters militarily to reach a final solution.”

In Hama province, rebels and the army clashed in a new campaign launched on Sunday by rebels to block off the country’s north, activists said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition-linked violence monitor, said fighting raged through the provincial towns of Karnaz, Kafar Weeta, Halfayeh and Mahardeh.

It said there were no clashes reported in Hama city, which lies on the main north-south highway connecting the capital with Aleppo, Syria’s second city.

Qassem Saadeddine, a member of the newly established rebel military command, said on Sunday fighters had been ordered to surround and attack army positions across the province. He said Assad’s forces were given 48 hours to surrender or be killed.

In 1982 Hafez al-Assad, father of the current ruler, crushed an uprising in Hama city, killing up to 30,000 civilians.

Qatiba al-Naasan, a rebel from Hama, said the offensive would bring retaliatory air strikes from the government but that the situation is “already getting miserable”.

(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes, Erika Solomon and Dominic Evans in Beirut, Afif Diab at Masnaa, Lebanon; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Clearwire accepts slightly sweeter bid from Sprint

(Reuters) – Clearwire Corp agreed to sell roughly half of the company for $ 2.2 billion to majority shareholder Sprint Nextel Corp, which would then have full ownership of spectrum that will help it offer high-speed wireless services.

The $ 2.97-per-share deal is only 7 cents per share higher than a bid many minority shareholders said was too low days before. Clearwire shares tumbled 12.2 percent to $ 2.96 in morning trading on Monday.

Sprint already owns slightly more than half of Clearwire. The company said owners of 13 percent of Clearwire shares – Comcast Corp, Intel Corp and Bright House Networks LLC – had agreed to vote for the deal.

But it was not immediately clear whether Sprint, the No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier, could win the backing of a majority of Clearwire’s minority shareholders, which it needs to take control.

“This is not going to be popular with the minority shareholders,” said Davidson & Co analyst Donna Jaegers.

But Clearwire’s top executive told analysts on a Monday call that the company had little alternative.

“Despite our efforts we have been unable to secure new partnerships,” said Clearwire Chief Executive Officer Erik Prusch. “Our existing governance agreements prevented us from offering third parties the governance rights they desired in a partnership.”

Shareholders with more than 13 percent of Clearwire shares said last week that they were not happy with the $ 2.90-per-share offer, and some have said Sprint should offer as much as $ 5 per share.

Crest Financial, which owns more than 3 percent of Clearwire, recently filed a lawsuit to stop the company from selling itself to Sprint.

After the deal was announced on Monday, Crest said it had amended the lawsuit to make it a class action.

Another shareholder, Mount Kellett, said last week that the $ 2.90-a-share deal “grossly” undervalued Clearwire.

Clearwire, which also counts Sprint as its biggest customer, has been seeking financing for a high-speed wireless network upgrade and to keep itself afloat.

While some analysts and shareholders said Clearwire did not need to rush into a sale to Sprint, others have said that move would be its best hope for survival.

Sprint, whose shares rose 1 percent to $ 5.61 on Monday, needs Clearwire’s substantial spectrum to better arm itself against larger rivals Verizon Wireless and AT&T Inc.

Reuters reported last week that Japan’s Softbank Corp, which recently struck a deal to buy 70 percent of Sprint, would not consent to a bid of more than $ 2.97 per share.

Softbank said on Monday that it supported the deal.

(Reporting by Sinead Carew in New York and Sayantani Ghosh in Bangalore; Editing by Rodney Joyce, Sriraj Kalluvila and Lisa Von Ahn)

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Jason Mraz tops Myanmar anti-trafficking concert

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — American singer-songwriter Jason Mraz mixed entertainment with education to become the first world-class entertainer in decades to perform in Myanmar, with a concert to raise awareness of human trafficking.

Mraz’s 2008 hit “I’m Yours” was the finale for Sunday night’s concert before a crowd of about 50,000 people at the base of the famous hilltop Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon, the country’s biggest city.

Local artists, including a hip-hop singer, also played at the event organized by the anti-trafficking media group MTV EXIT — for “End Exploitation and Trafficking” —in cooperation with U.S. and Australian government aid agencies and the anti-slavery organization Walk Free.

Myanmar is emerging from decades of isolation under a reformist elected government that took office last year after almost five decades of military rule. It has been one of the region’s poorest countries, and its bad human rights record made it the target of political and economic sanctions by Western nations.

But democratic reforms initiated by President Thein Sein have led to the lifting of most sanctions, and the country is hopeful of a political and economic revival. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy opposition leader, was released from house arrest in late 2010 and won a seat in parliament last April.

Mraz called his top-billed appearance at the concert a “tremendous honor.”

“I think the country is, at this time, downloading lots of new information from all around the world,” he said. “I’ve always wanted my music to be here, (for) hope and celebration, peace, love and happiness. And so I’m delighted that my music can be a part of this big download that Myanmar is experiencing right now.”

Organizers said Mraz was the first international artist to perform at an open-air, mass public concert in Myanmar. Jazz artists Count Basie, Duke Ellington and Charlie Byrd visited the country under U.S. government sponsorship in the 1970s, when it was still called Burma, but played at much smaller venues.

Many in the crowd queued for two hours before being admitted to the concert site. Yangon native Sann Oo, 31, wearing a white T-shirt with a sketch of Mraz, said he was pleased that Mraz had come and that there would be a broadcast of the event.

“His visit can promote the image of Myanmar, because people outside have been seeing the country as an insecure place, and poor,” he said. “Now they can see how we look like from the concert. It also opens the potential for more concerts by foreign artists.”

Mraz has a history of involvement with human rights and other social causes.

But there was some criticism of his visit by campaigners for Myanmar‘s Muslim Rohingya community, which has been the target of ethnic-based violence this year that has forced tens of thousands of people from their homes into makeshift refugee camps. They feel Myanmar’s government has been complicit in the discrimination, and that Mraz’s visit provides it cover with the image of being a defender of human rights.

Mraz said he was aware of the issue, but that if he didn’t come to do the concert because someone else had asked him to protest another problem, then that would not help tackle the exploitation and human trafficking issue.

“I understand that there is a lot of wrongdoing in this world,” he said. “Today I’m here for this.”

Walk Free used the occasion of Sunday’s concert to launch a campaign calling on the world’s major corporations “to work together to end modern slavery by identifying, eradicating and preventing forced labor in their operations and supply chains.” They are seeking to have the companies make a “zero tolerance for slavery pledge” by the end of March next year.

“While many think of slavery as a relic of history, experts estimate that there are currently 20.9 million people living under threat of violence, abuse and harsh penalties,” the Australia-based group said in a statement. “Within this massive number, the majority of people – more than 14.2 million – are in a forced labor situation, used to source raw materials, and create products in sectors such as agriculture, construction, manufacturing and domestic work.”

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Kids Lead Crowd Funded Scientific Mission to Nicaragua: Science Education is the Tide that Lifts All Boats

Enzo, Haley and Emma are ordinary kids working on an extraordinary mission. They are joining up with a team of Special Forces medics and elite, global surgeons to deliver medical aid to the Rama Indians of Nicaragua in the spring of 2013.In partnership with HumaniTV, the journey will be beamed to tens of thousands of kids around the globe by satellite as the three middle school students trek through the jungles of Central America performing research on sustainable agriculture and seeing first hand how science and innovation improves peoples’ lives.”We want to send a message to kids that science isn’t just about getting a better job and making more money,” says team captain and the creator of Exploration nation, twelve year old Enzo. “If it wasn’t for science, we’d still be sitting in a cave somewhere chomping on a mammoth bone in the dark.”The high profile expedition was created by Enzoology Education, a social enterprise that produces Exploration Nation and HumaniTV, an online network featuring humanitarian aid programming to send the message that “science education is the tide that lifts all boats”.Enzo, Haley and Emma are part of the cast of Exploration Nation, an education program that features real kids doing real science research around the globe. These adventures are captured on video and coupled with lesson plans designed to inspire and motivate elementary and middle school students to take up careers in science.America’s Future as a Global Innovator Lies at the Feet of our Youngest Citizens According to a 2009 study by Raytheon, about 60% of students lose their interest in science before the age of 13. The study is just one that shows how students start elementary school genuinely excited about science. By the time they hit seventh grade, the majority feel that science is “boring” and irrelevant to their lives.Dave Wilson, director of academic programs at National Instruments, stated “In order for students to remain engaged in math and science, they need to actually experience the theory that educators put before them. Bringing the theory to life through hands-on experiences really helps students understand and learn better and makes the concepts more relevant to them.” National Instruments is well known for its technical innovation and dedication to science and math education.”Many science principles have been the same for hundreds of years.” says Robert Bourdelais of Ward’s Natural Science. “We are using 19th century methods to teach 21st century kids. Students today need to touch and feel science and learn by doing. A lecture environment doesn’t inspire today’s young students. The way we teach them needs to evolve and align with ever changing technology which is becoming the center of our modern world.”It should be no surprise that presenting science in a dry, isolated context to today’s super stimulated kids results in students becoming more and more disconnected from how innovation is at the core of human existence. The irony of this belief is lost on the most wired generation in history.It is a terrible irony that young people don’t believe science to be relevant to their lives when they are totally immersed in some of the most advanced technological innovation in the history of mankind. Even worse is the idea that any one of these kids has the potential to cure cancer, solve the energy problem or invent the next insanely great thing. Let’s just hope those kids are not in the 60% who fall through the cracks.How Does Helping the Indigenous People of Nicaragua Help America’s Students?According to world renowned paleontologist Dr. Jack Horner, “I think it’s time to do away with traditional classrooms where information is simply disseminated to students who are then expected to regurgitate that same information. We must now create environments where students have to think or create and solve problems or write using their imaginations in order to pass classes…” Horner says. “We need to show kids that active participation in science is exciting and important while motivating them to have their own adventures instead of hearing it second-hand.”Team XN: Expedition Central America is designed to inspire students to get actively involved in hands-on scientific study and show them how innovations in agriculture, renewable fuels, ethnobotany and medicine improve the living conditions of all people – especially the impoverished.The Rama Indians of the Mosquito Coast in Nicaragua are on the receiving end for the Expedition. “We chose the Rama to illustrate what life would be like minus innovation.” says Dr. Alfredo Lopez Salazar, owner of the Rio Indio Lodge in Nicaragua and a long time supporter of the indigenous populations in Central America. Dr. Lopez continues, “The Rama have a sophisticated tradition of thriving in the rain forest and an intimate knowledge of the plants and animals that surround them. But they currently struggle to fulfill their basic needs, such as medical care.”Team XN: Expedition Central AmericaThe team of kids and doctors will bring access to a wide range of medical procedures, basic drugs like antibiotics and analgesics as well as water purification and curriculum materials for the only school in the village.The fourteen day trek through the jungle will include several stops to create a series of lesson programs for Exploration Nation on subjects ranging from sustainable tropical agriculture and renewable energy to ethnobotany and austere medicine. These lessons will include instructional materials and video for elementary and middle school students.The Expedition is also broadcasting live to classrooms across the United States each day of the journey, free for any educators who want to follow the adventure as a learning experience for their students. The team is raising money for the expedition using a crowd funding strategy a growing trend in the scientific community.Thirteen year old Exploration Nation host, Emma, states, “I’m not sure what to expect. I guess the kids there won’t be much different from the kids here. They just don’t have as much stuff and when they get sick, they can’t go to the doctor. So we are bringing the doctors to them.”Learn more about the Expedition here: http://explorationnation.com/expedition-central-americaAll images by Pete Monfre.

Follow Scientific American on Twitter @SciAm and @SciamBlogs.Visit ScientificAmerican.com for the latest in science, health and technology news.
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Japan’s Nikkei outperforms as opposition wins big

LONDON (AP) — Japanese shares outperformed all others Monday amid hopes that the new government will enact fresh stimulus measures to boost the world’s third-largest economy.

Signs that U.S. politicians are inching toward a budget deal helped Wall Street open stronger than earlier predicted and shored up European markets after a bad morning.

The standout index was Japan‘s Nikkei 225, which closed up 0.9 percent at 9,828.88, its highest level since April, after the country’s Liberal Democratic Party swept back into power at weekend elections with a landslide victory.

Party chief Shinzo Abe, who is in line to become prime minister, favors increased spending on public works and setting a 3 percent economic growth target. He’s also expected to lobby for stronger action by the central bank to get Japan out of its deflationary trap.

“Japanese equities rallied today on the back of a resounding victory by Shinzo Abe‘s LDP, giving them a mandate to boost economic growth through more aggressive fiscal and monetary easing,” said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.

Expectations of further stimulus in Japan, despite the country’s sky-high debt levels and doubts over the effectiveness of looser economic policy, further weighed on the yen. The dollar was 0.4 percent higher at $ 83.73 yen.

The yen’s recent weakness is a potential boon to the country’s powerhouse exporters. Automaker Nissan Motor Co. rose 1.8 percent, Sony Corp. climbed 1.4 percent and Panasonic Corp jumped 2.3 percent.

Elsewhere, markets remained largely beholden to developments over the U.S. budget. The concern is whether the White House and Congress will agree a budget deal in time to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the start of next year.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.4 percent at 5,896 while Germany’s DAX fell 0.1 percent to 7,590. The CAC-40 in France was 0.3 percent lower at 3,631.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.5 percent at 13,194 while the broader S&P 500 index rose the same rate to 1,421.

Though the budget measures associated with the “fiscal cliff” would not all be introduced at once and the Republicans have indicated a willingness to increase taxes on households earning over $ 1 million, investors won’t breathe easily until a deal is signed, sealed and delivered.

“Investors have so far remained hopeful that an agreement can be reached in a sufficiently timely manner,” said Nick Bennenbroek, an analyst at Wells Fargo Bank. “However, with a year-end deadline for a deal now looming closer, those budget developments should become increasingly important through the end of December.”

In recent weeks, the dollar had suffered, at least against the euro, due to the U.S. budget fears. On Monday, the currencies were steady, with the euro up 0.1 percent at $ 1.3165.

Oil markets were subdued too, with the price of benchmark New York crude up 27 cents at $ 87 a barrel.

Elsewhere in Asia, China’s shares fared fairly well as its new leaders promised more spending if needed to underpin a wobbly economic recovery. Those hopes helped the Shanghai Composite to rise 0.4 percent to 2,160.34 and the smaller Shenzhen Composite index to end 0.4 percent higher to 819.58.

On Sunday, China’s new Communist Party leaders under party General Secretary Xi Jinping pledged a “proactive fiscal policy” and “prudent monetary policy” in a statement carried by the official Xinhua News Agency. They were references to the willingness to boost spending if needed and keep credit easy so long as inflation stays low.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.6 percent to 1,983.07 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.4 percent at 22,513.61.

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Iran media: Son of ex-president released on bail

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian media say the son of influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been released on bail.

Several papers, including the pro-reform Etemad daily, say Mahdi Hashemi was released late Sunday and immediately went to his father’s home.

Authorities arrested the younger Hashemi in late September, a day after he returned to Iran from Britain.

He is held on charges of fomenting unrest in the aftermath of Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential election that brought President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term in office. Hashemi also faced corruption charges.

His arrest came days after his sister, Faezeh, was taken into custody to serve a six-month sentence on charges of making propaganda against Iran’s ruling system.

Since Rafsanjani backed Ahmadinejad’s reformist challenger in 2009, his family has come under pressure from hardliners.

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8 Christmas Light Shows That Will Rock Your Stockings Off

1. A Christmas Rock Medley

This mind-blowing video comes from South Dakota. Its creator uses the show’s publicity to help raise money for the Make-a-Wish Foundation.

Click here to view this gallery.

[More from Mashable: 63 Digital Media Resources You May Have Missed]

The winter celebration of the evergreen tree is not a modern tradition — it extends back to pre-Christian times and to cultures all over the world.

Maybe your holiday tradition involves stringing thousands of lights across your property for a majestic arrangement. Or perhaps your family just tours the neighborhood to see everyone else’s exhibits. Either way, YouTube is here to provide some sensational seasonal light shows for your viewing and listening pleasure, from festive homes all across the country.

[More from Mashable: 10 Adorable Dog Outfits for the Holidays]

Enjoy these creative displays, and maybe draw a little inspiration for next year’s decorations. If you’re worried about complexity, learn to do it yourself.

Have you seen an unforgettable holiday display we forgot to include? In the spirit of giving, let us know about it in the comments section below.

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Sundance film “End of Love” finds distributor

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Gravitas Ventures and Variance Films have acquired all North American rights to writer-director Mark Webber‘s drama “The End of Love,” the companies announced on Thursday.

The father-son drama, which debuted at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, stars Webber alongside Shannyn Sossamon (pictured), and Webber’s real-life son Isaac Love, and features appearances by Michael Cera, Jason Ritter, and Amanda Seyfried.

The film tells the story of struggling actor Mark (Webber), who is forced to grapple with his inability to grow up when the mother of his two-year-old son Isaac suddenly dies. As he kindles a relationship with a young single mother, Mark begins to realize that he can no longer remain in denial about the real-life consequences his choices have on Isaac.

Gravitas Ventures will debut the film across all major video on demand (VOD) platforms on January 21, 2013 with a theatrical release from Variance Films beginning March 1 2013 in select markets.

“Propelled by the authenticity and intimacy of the performances, our acquisition team was unanimous that ‘The End of Love’ was one of the strongest films not only of Sundance, but of all of the films we saw last year,” said Nolan Gallagher, founder and CEO of Gravitas Ventures.

“I’m thrilled that ‘The End of Love’ has found a home with Gravitas and Variance,” said Webber. “In the rapidly changing landscape of how films are seen, these two companies are at the forefront of embracing that change.”

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Child deaths and bitter cold in Syrian refugee camps

ZAATARI, Jordan (Reuters) – One-year-old Ali Ghazawi, born with a heart defect, faced a battle for survival even before his family fled Syria‘s civil war. It was a struggle he lost two weeks ago in the bitter winter cold of a tented refugee camp in north Jordan.

Ali died two days after undergoing a heart operation in Zaatari camp, which houses at least 32,000 refugees who escaped fierce bombardment in Syria’s rebellious southern province of Deraa, cradle of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.

“I covered my son with two blankets, but he was not warming up, and he turned blue before he passed away in my hands,” said his sobbing 22-year-old mother, alone with a three-year-old daughter after she left her husband in Deraa and crossed the border in November.

Ali was the fourth baby to die in three weeks in the windswept camp. United Nations aid workers say none of the deaths were the direct result of conditions in Zaatari, yet they highlight the challenge facing relief agencies scrambling to provide basic shelter for half a million refugees in the region.

“These deaths are a result of cumulative factors, some related to shortage in needs and natural causes. But on top of that, the reality that conditions are harsh cannot be ignored,” said Saba Mobaslat, program director at Save the Children.

Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey each host more than 130,000 registered refugees, and relief workers predict the numbers will only increase as violence escalates around the capital Damascus.

Mirroring Syria’s youthful population, almost 65 percent of Jordan’s camp residents are newborns and young children.

“Every night we are getting children as young as four days old, six days old, one week, two weeks old, and it’s a real struggle to try to make sure that everyone survives,” said Andrew Harper, Jordan head of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

“Women are giving birth on the border, and people are coming across pregnant. It’s a situation where we just need to redouble efforts, particularly as we move into winter, because you have hundreds of pregnant women who cross the border,” Harper said.

Families often send the most vulnerable to safety, he added, so alongside the very young in Zaatari are many older refugees. “Last night we had a couple who were 97 years old,” he said.

“CHILDREN’S CAMP”

Along the main road in the middle of the camp’s muddy and gravel streets, children of all ages race around the makeshift market place that sprang up after the camp opened in July.

Many families join in, out of enterprise or necessity, selling everything from hot falafel to household goods, old clothing and fresh vegetables.

“It’s a children’s camp. You walk into it and there are children everywhere. It’s in your face. The male adults are staying behind, and a woman comes with 10 children without her bread earner,” Mobaslat added.

In one of several UNICEF-run playgrounds, among seesaws, swings and volunteers giving music lessons, the scars of war are fresh in the minds of most children.

“I long for my home, and I hope Bashar falls to get back to my home. It’s much better than here, where we are humiliated,” said Mohammad Ghazawi, 12, who came to play after a break from selling cheap cigarettes.

Their elders complain that two thin blankets per refugee distributed in recent weeks were not enough to warm them in tents that let in rain water despite zinc reinforcements and waterproof layers that have helped insulate them.

“Kids are dying from cold and lack of blankets. My kids shiver at night, and one has constant diarrhea,” said Mohammad Samara, 46, who fled heavy shelling in the southern Syrian town of Busr al-Sham in October with his wife and four children.

Carsten Hansen, country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), which has set up a heated tent that receives families on arrival, says much progress has been made to help distribute aid.

“Everybody is trying to mobilize resources … in order to react to bigger numbers and a huge influx,” Hansen said, adding that 6,000 gas heaters had been airlifted to Jordan to help heat the tent camp.

FROM CRISIS TO DISASTER?

Harper said UNHCR was working to prevent “this humanitarian crisis becoming a major disaster”. But he said that while aid teams were racing to improve conditions at Zaatari, there were 100,000 other registered refugees living outside the camp and probably another 100,000 unregistered, whose living conditions were not improving.

In Lebanon, too, host to 154,000 refugees, many face a bleak winter, and aid workers expect their numbers to more than double by the middle of next year.

In the Bekaa Valley town of Bar Elias, a woman from the northern Syria province of Idlib says her home for the last year has been a wooden shack with only plastic sheeting to protect from the rain. Plastic bags are stuffed into the roof as extra insurance against leaks. “There is no water, no electricity, no school for my kids,” she said in a croaky voice.

“My husband is sick. The situation is very bad.”

Mads Almaas, NRC country director in Lebanon, said many more may flee Syria over the winter to escape worsening conditions there, putting even greater strain on relief efforts.

“The violence will not only continue but also get worse. And even in the increasingly likely event of the fall of Assad, we don’t think the violence will end,” he said.

Almaas said the United Nations would launch a regional response plan on Wednesday anticipating a total of 300,000 registered refugees in Lebanon by mid-2013. “At first we thought it was too high. Now we are concerned it is too low,” he said.

In Turkey, which hosts 136,000 refugees, camps for the most part have facilities such as portable electric heaters, and refugees receive three hot meals a day from the Red Crescent. But temperatures can plunge below freezing in the rugged terrain along the 900 kilometer (560 mile) border with Syria during the winter months, and rain can be torrential and cause flooding.

Overcrowding remains a concern, with extended families cramped in single tents and ever more refugees arriving as fighting across the border drags on.

Across the region, aid workers fear an explosion in violence could leave them seriously overstretched.

“Right now funds are sufficient. What is a challenge is if we get any shocks, something like 5,000-10,000 refugees arriving (in Lebanon) in a matter of hours,” Almaas said.

If fighting swept through the center of Damascus, thousands of Syrians could flee to the Lebanese border in a matter of hours. “For that, we are not prepared as the NRC. I also question the international community’s capacity.”

(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Beirut and Nick Tattersall in Ankara; Editing by Dominic Evans and Will Waterman)

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Cinnabon in Tripoli: Libya Opens Up to Foreign Business

After 42 years, the country formerly known as the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya is getting its first taste of consumer capitalism in an unlikely form: sweet, sticky cinnamon rolls. Cinnabon, the Atlanta-based bakery chain, is at the vanguard of a potential business boom in the North African country, which deposed dictator Muammar Qaddafi last year in a bloody civil war. In July the unit of Focus Brands became the first U.S. franchise to open since the revolution, with a two-level Tripoli outlet. It’s become a popular destination in a city with few diversions for residents.

The shop on Tripoli’s version of Fifth Avenue

Cinnabon’s bet on Libya—it plans to open at least 10 new locations over the next five years—shows the perils and potential of this wealthy new consumer market, which is being eyed by a growing number of foreign companies. Yes, Libya has a rickety electricity grid and few formal property rights. And due to ongoing sectarian violence, it remains a dangerous place. But the country sits atop Africa’s biggest oil reserves, which may generate as much as $ 55 billion for the state oil company this year. That means there are plenty of well-off locals and expats who can afford to pay for a Western-style sweet.

Photo illustration by 731; Photograph by Getty Images

The country is a less incongruous place for Cinnabon than one might expect. Syrupy treats like baklava are beloved in Libya, as in other Arab countries, so local palates are ready-made for the chain, explains Mike Shattuck, president of Focus Brands International. What’s more, in a Muslim country where bars are almost nonexistent, young people need places to hang out. Finally, an influx of investment from Persian Gulf property developers means “down the road there’s no question there will be a big mall culture,” providing the natural habitat for future Cinnabon outlets.

For now the Tripoli store is very much a foreign oddity. Positioned as more upscale than the chain’s food court roots in the U.S., the shop has become a fixture on Gargaresh Road, Libya’s Fifth Avenue, where it attracts an affluent clientele. The prices are First World as well: A cinnamon bun and a regular coffee cost 6.50 dinars, or about $ 5.15, close to the price in the U.S.

The franchise owners, brothers Arief and Ahmed Swaidek, first planned to open Cinnabon in 2008, but bureaucracy delayed completion of the store until January 2011. A splashy grand opening was abandoned when revolution broke out that February. Nonetheless, news of the shop spread quickly after its opening this July.

On a recent evening the store was busy with young customers, about two-thirds of them women, who tend to avoid the traditionally male-dominated coffeehouses. Unlike at most Western restaurants, all of the staff are male. In addition to the chain’s signature pastries, it serves Carvel ice cream (another Focus Brands product), sandwiches, salads, and cakes. An upstairs lounge caters to patrons who want to linger, and the shop stays open until about 11 p.m. to accommodate the local preference for late-night snacking. All that activity can push Libya’s patchy infrastructure to the limit: The utility in Tripoli can’t always cope with two floors of full-blast air conditioning. The franchise relied on a generator to keep things cool during the busy Ramadan season, says store manager Ehab Abdelo-Meged.

Serving Middle Eastern customers isn’t new for Cinnabon, whose portfolio of 900 worldwide locations includes outlets in Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt. It also has experience operating in less-than-salubrious locales such as Pakistan and El Salvador. Still, Libya presents particular challenges. Security in Tripoli is shaky. In August, Salafi Muslim militants demolished a downtown mosque of the more moderate Sufi sect with bulldozers. Libya has yet to charge anyone with the murders of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three of his officials, killed when the Benghazi consulate was stormed in September. Kidnappings, including that of the head of Libya’s Olympic Committee in July, are a fact of life. And gunfire can be heard most nights in the capital.

Shattuck points to more mundane concerns, such as sourcing ingredients (the majority are imported from the U.S. on a quarterly basis) and finding a reliable way to pay suppliers in a country that still lacks a modern banking system. “There are a lot of institutional needs still, from our perspective. But we feel things are moving in the right direction,” he says.

Others are optimistic as well. Companies from France Télécom (FTE) to Qatar National Bank (QNRK) are looking to invest in Libya as Prime Minister Ali Zaidan’s new government plans to kick-start asset sales, privatize state companies, and break up monopolies. “I’m 10 times more bullish on Libya than I was at the end of 2010,” says Abdulla Boulsien, a former Merrill Lynch (BAC) investment banker who helps run Tuareg Capital, a Libya-focused private equity firm. So Cinnabon is unlikely to be the sole refuge for Libyans craving an American-style dining experience for long. “It’s a virgin land,” manager Abdelo-Meged says of the country. “Any franchise coming here will be a success.”

The bottom line: Libya, with 6 million citizens and $ 55 billion in state oil revenue this year, is attracting Western investments like Tripoli’s new Cinnabon cafe.

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