UK inflation rate rises to 2.7%

13 November 2012 Last updated at 06:29 ET

Phil Gooding, Office for National Statistics: “There are two main drivers behind the event, that comes from education and food”

The UK’s inflation rate rose sharply last month following an increase in tuition fees and food prices.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.7% in October, up from 2.2% the month before.

The ONS said education costs rose by 19.1% last month after the government lifted the cap on university fees.

Food prices, especially vegetables, also rose after record wet weather earlier this year affected crop yields.

Confectionery prices also increased. The ONS said this was because a number of confectionery products had been reduced in size.

It said it treated this as a price increase in the inflation measures, as consumers were getting less for their money.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation – which includes housing costs – rose to 3.2% from 2.6%.

The Treasury said the figures were “disappointing”.

Labour’s Shadow Treasury minister, Catherine McKinnell, said the increase was “worrying”.

Continue reading the main story

When the Bank of England decided last week not to create more money to support the recovery, some of us wondered why they didn’t offer an explanation”

End Quote

The ONS also announced it would be introducing a new way of measuring inflation next March, the CPIH, which will include housing costs, something that is not reflected significantly in the currently favoured measure.

Energy prices

September’s CPI inflation rate was the lowest for almost three years, and was significant as it is the month on which rises in many benefits is based.

However, inflation had been expected to pick up from that point, partly because of a recently announced round of energy price rises that are expected to affect inflation figures in the coming months.

The ONS said SSE’s price rise of about 9%, which came into effect last month, was not included in the October inflation figures.

Ross Walker, UK economist at RBS, said the latest figures were slightly worse than predicted.

“They are a little bit disappointing, higher than expected, above the range,” he said. “Ironically, we had the tuition fee increases that are roughly what we expected and the surprise for us was the extent of the food price increase.”

The cap on charges for tuition fees was raised by the government from £3,375 to £9,000 a year.

The Bank of England is charged with keeping inflation close to 2%, something it has struggled to do in recent years, as the standard way of suppressing prices is to raise interest rates, which it does not want to risk during this period of weak economic activity.

Alan Clarke, economist at Scotia Bank, said that target remained elusive: “Where do we go from here? Onwards and upwards. Utility bill increases are on their way. We’ve also got the effect of the US drought and increased food prices to factor in.

“I don’t think we’re going to get anything like the 2% inflation target.”

The Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report will be published on Wednesday.

The rise in inflation may make it less likely that the Bank will provide further stimulus to the economy in the form of quantitative easing.

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General investigated for emails to Petraeus friend

PERTH, Australia (AP) — In a new twist to the Gen. David Petraeus sex scandal, the Pentagon said Tuesday that the top American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Allen, is under investigation for alleged “inappropriate communications” with a woman who is said to have received threatening emails from Paula Broadwell, the woman with whom Petraeus had an extramarital affair.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a written statement issued to reporters aboard his aircraft, en route from Honolulu to Perth, Australia, that the FBI referred the matter to the Pentagon on Sunday.

Panetta said that he ordered a Pentagon investigation of Allen on Monday.

A senior defense official traveling with Panetta said Allen’s communications were with Jill Kelley, who has been described as an unpaid social liaison at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., which is headquarters to the U.S. Central Command. She is not a U.S. government employee.

Kelley is said to have received threatening emails from Broadwell, who is Petraeus’ biographer and who had an extramarital affair with Petraeus that reportedly began after he became CIA director in September 2011.

Petraeus resigned as CIA director on Friday.

Allen, a four-star Marine general, succeeded Petraeus as the top American commander in Afghanistan in July 2011.

The senior official, who discussed the matter only on condition of anonymity because it is under investigation, said Panetta believed it was prudent to launch a Pentagon investigation, although the official would not explain the nature of Allen’s problematic communications.

The official said 20,000 to 30,000 pages of emails and other documents from Allen’s communications with Kelley between 2010 and 2012 are under review. He would not say whether they involved sexual matters or whether they are thought to include unauthorized disclosures of classified information. He said he did not know whether Petraeus is mentioned in the emails.

“Gen. Allen disputes that he has engaged in any wrongdoing in this matter,” the official said. He said Allen currently is in Washington.

Panetta said that while the matter is being investigated by the Defense Department Inspector General, Allen will remain in his post as commander of the International Security Assistance Force, based in Kabul. He praised Allen as having been instrumental in making progress in the war.

The FBI’s decision to refer the Allen matter to the Pentagon rather than keep it itself, combined with Panetta’s decision to allow Allen to continue as Afghanistan commander without a suspension, suggested strongly that officials viewed whatever happened as a possible infraction of military rules rather than a violation of federal criminal law.

Allen was Deputy Commander of Central Command, based in Tampa, prior to taking over in Afghanistan. He also is a veteran of the Iraq war.

In the meantime, Panetta said, Allen’s nomination to be the next commander of U.S. European Command and the commander of NATO forces in Europe has been put on hold “until the relevant facts are determined.” He had been expected to take that new post in early 2013, if confirmed by the Senate, as had been widely expected.

Panetta said President Barack Obama was consulted and agreed that Allen’s nomination should be put on hold. Allen was to testify at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. Panetta said he asked committee leaders to delay that hearing.

NATO officials had no comment about the delay in Allen’s appointment.

“We have seen Secretary Panetta‘s statement,” NATO spokeswoman Carmen Romero said in Brussels. “It is a U.S. investigation.”

Panetta also said he wants the Senate Armed Services Committee to act promptly on Obama’s nomination of Gen. Joseph Dunford to succeed Allen as commander in Afghanistan. That nomination was made several weeks ago. Dunford’s hearing is also scheduled for Thursday.

___

Associated Press writer Slobodan Lekic in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this report.

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Microsoft’s Surface tablet has “modest” start: Ballmer

PARIS (Reuters) – Microsoft Corp‘s new Surface tablet – its challenger to Apple‘s iPad – had a “modest” start to sales because of limited availability, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer told French daily Le Parisien.

The world’s largest software company put the Surface tablet center stage at its Windows 8 launch event last month in its fightback against Apple and Google in the exploding mobile computing market.

“We’ve had a modest start because Surface is only available on our online retail sites and a few Microsoft stores in the United States,” Ballmer was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, 4 million upgrades to Windows 8 were sold in the three days following the system’s launch, Ballmer added. (Reporting by Lionel Laurent; Editing by David Cowell)

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Vt. Mom Begs FDA: Save My Other Son

Jenn McNary, a mother of six from Saxtons River, Vt., is desperate.

Both her boys have Duchenne muscular dystrophy, but only her 10-year-old Max has access to a wonder drug that appears to be reversing the symptoms of this deadly disease.

His 13-year-old brother Austin is languishing in a wheelchair while Max has been able to take the drug eteplirsen through a highly successful clinical trial.

After 60 weeks on an IV infusion, Max was able to participate in a three-mile Halloween walk.

“It’s the first time ever — he’s never been able to walk that far. He’s always gone with a wheelchair, even as a toddler,” said McNary, 32. “He actually doesn’t look like a Duchenne kid at all. And his balance is great.”

“People all over the world are calling it a miracle,” she said of the drug.

Now, McNary has written petitioned the Food and Drug Administration to give accelerated approval of the medication, the fastest way to help Austin and other boys with the disease.

Both boys, whose last name is Leclair, have the same gene mutation that the drug targets and will eventually kill them. Austin was diagnosed at 3 and Max at 3 months.

McNary and her husband Craig are also raising four other healthy children in a second marriage.

There is no cure for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Until now, doctors have only been able to use steroids, which just temporarily delay the inevitable loss of muscle strength.

“My brother says he’s doing it for me, that he’s trying really hard,” Austin told ABCNews.com in August. “That’s why he wanted to do it.”

Austin was not allowed to participate in the clinical trial because one of the inclusion criteria was that he be able to complete a six-minute walk.

“This has been a bitter-sweet journey for us,” McNary wrote in a letter to the FDA this week. “As we watch Max get better, we also watch his older brother, Austin, 13, get worse. He suffers, silently, as his disease progresses.”

Duchenne muscular dystrophy affects one in 3,500 male births, about 20,000 children in the United States and 300,000 worldwide, according to Cure Duchenne, one of three organizations that have funded the clinical trial.

The muscular disease strikes between the ages of 3 and 5 as boys progressively lose their ability to walk. Eventually, they are wheelchair bound, their upper body strength fails, and, like Austin, they eventually cannot raise their arms to feed themselves.

Later, their breathing is affected and they require tracheotomies and breathing assistance. Eventually, the heart and lungs fail.

Parents of children who were in the clinical trial of eteplirsen at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus are calling it a “wonder drug.”

According to McNary, all 12 children in the double-blind study received “some benefit” from the drug. It has no known side effects.

“Even two boys who stopped walking before taking it have stronger upper bodies and their hearts are strong,” she said. “They have progressed to stable.”

Muscular Dystrophy Drug Could Stabilize Disease

If this exon-skipping drug is approved, she estimates 15 percent of boys with Duchenne could be helped, those with the type that skips exon 51. As a class of drugs, they could up to 85 percent of boys with the disease.

Stock prices for its manufacturer, Sarepta Therapeutics. , have soared.

If Sarepta Therapeutics can get accelerated approval, the drug could be available in six to nine months, according to McNary. Otherwise, the wait could be four or five years — too late for Austin.

“We are very encouraged by the data we have seen to date,” said Chris Garabedian, president and CEO of Sarepta Therapeutics, which makes the drug and is pressing the FDA to take action.

“If we start using the drug earlier in patients, we might be able to stabilize whatever state they are in for a longer period of time,” said Garabedian. “We are not going to end up creating Olympic athletes from this drug, but we are encouraged this could really halt or slow the progression.”

McNary is reaching out to media and online petition sites to encourage as many people as possible to write letters of support to the FDA.

But as she waits approval, Austin gets weaker. In the last few months, he has lost all upper body control and must be lifted 100 percent of the time.

Just recently, he was diagnosed with sleep apnea and must go on a nighttime machine to keep his lungs inflated.

Austin keeps his spirits high, according to McNary.

On Halloween, he dressed his wheelchair up as a hot dog stand, carrying his dachshund in a cloth bun. And just recently, his father and uncle took him hunting. They held up the gun for Austin and he shot his first buck — an eight-pointer.

McNary is convinced that if the FDA can move on approving the drug that has healed Max, it can also help Austin.

Until then, he’s “hanging in there,” she said. “He has a huge zest for life.”

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In This Junkyard, It Seems, There Are No Dogs

It’s kind of Orwellian that anyone would rapaciously buy an ETF with the ticker JNK—branding shorthand for “junk,” Wall Street’s sobriquet for high-yield, the riskiest layer of corporate bonds.

Nevertheless, JNK, the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF, and competitor offerings are a hot destination in these yield-famished days. The appeal is irrefutable: You’ll get precious little income from Treasuries and muni bonds. Creditworthy corporations are borrowing at record lows. Why not then pile into riskier, higher-yielding debt, especially if you can do so via one tidy, exchange-traded ticker? (No need to ring Michael Milken.) What’s more, Moody’s sees the global default rate for “speculative-grade” debt ending the year at 2.8 percent, compared with an average of 4.8 percent since 1983. Yields have fallen 1.65 percentage points this year, to 7.05 percent on Nov. 1, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

What’s not to love?

An overcrowded trade marked by 2007-like issuer complacency—that’s what. More companies are demanding and getting easy terms on their junk issues. The most popular junk ETFs are going deeper into credit risk to scrape for yield. The sluicing of retail money into these ETFs is perpetuating what has historically proved to be a vicious trend. “Signs of over-exuberance are creeping into the corporate credit market,” wrote Michael Lewitt, a hedge fund manager who publishes the Credit Strategist. “In the past, rising issuance of these types of low-quality bonds has been a warning that a market rally is coming to an end … Today’s new issues will be the troubled credits of tomorrow.”

On Nov. 7, Standard & Poor’s warned of the unprecedented dangers of a brave, new junk bond world. Wrote credit analysts Diane Vazza and Evan Gunter:

“The ease with which investors can enter and exit ETF investments creates new and risky dynamics in the speculative-grade market with the potential flow of ‘hot money.’ Speculative-grade companies have a higher default risk than investment-grade companies. Therefore, when the credit cycle turns against investors, losses from defaults can quickly outstrip the additional interest payments that high-yield investors receive. Since we are entering the stage of declining credit quality in the current credit cycle, the credit quality of an issuer or a portfolio has become paramount.”

Vazza and Gunter looked under the hoods of JNK and its rival, HYG, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund. They found that both ETFs owned a higher proportion of the riskiest junk debt versus the overall high-yield market. While they estimated that the broad universe of high yield includes 7.9 percent of bonds rated CCC+ and lower, their share in HYG’s portfolio is at 11.0 percent and in JNK just under 10 percent. While higher risk juices returns in a favorable environment like the present one, the analysts explained, they take outsized losses once the credit cycle turns.

Sales of junk debt in the U.S. have come in at $ 294 billion so far this year, the fastest pace on record. It’s in that booming backdrop that private equity-owned companies have paid out $ 34.1 billion in dividends this year, according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary & Data. That’s north of 2010’s total of $ 31.5 billion and the $ 23.8 billion paid out in 2007, when the leveraged buyout market peaked. By comparison: Some $ 1.2 billion in dividends were issued in 2008 and $ 440 million in 2009.

This boom has prompted an echo-boom in payment-in-kind transactions, or PIK toggles, which let companies pay interest in debt rather than cash, essentially deferring payments to their investors. That tactic was a hallmark of the private equity bubble of five years ago. According to Moody’s, as of mid-October two of the third quarter’s 14 dividend financings enjoyed PIK toggle structures, including Emergency Medical Services’ $ 450 million of notes to pay a dividend to Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and IDQ Holdings’ $ 45 million deal supporting a payout to Castle Harlan. Last month, Petco also got in on the PIK toggle boom.

Caveat junktor. Moody’s calculates that the default rate for companies that sold PIK-toggle bonds was 13 percent from 2006 to 2010, twice the rate for similarly rated issuers that didn’t use the tactic.

“Low yields are driving more and more investors into really strange territory,” says Lee Pacchia, a Bloomberg Law analyst who follows corporate bankruptcies. “They need to take on risk. While the market forces driving this trend could go on for a while, lowering standards could end badly. It’s called ‘junk’ for a reason.”

The institutional smart money is increasingly taking the other side of that trade. According to Bloomberg data, the number of bearish options on HYG are at an all-time high: The number of outstanding puts on HYG has almost doubled since Oct. 19, to a record of 118,444 at the end of last month. Hedge funds seeking that bet on both gains and losses in credit attracted $ 12.6 billion of deposits in the three months ended Sept. 30, the most since the last quarter of 2007, according to HFR.

It all makes you wonder how quickly people may have forgotten the lessons of the credit bubble, or what one hedgie has called the era of promiscuous lending. Will today’s junk boom end so differently?

“The history of money is a sad state of affairs,” wrote Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland in his recent post, titled “The Myth of Deleveraging.” “Failing to learn from a litany of previous monetary fiascoes, ‘money’ is these days being abusively over-issued.”

Farzad is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.

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Clarke’s 218 puts Australia on front foot

BRISBANE (Reuters) – Australia captain Michael Clarke scored a brilliant unbeaten double century to give the hosts a remarkable 37-run first innings lead on the fourth day of the first test against South Africa on Monday.

Supported first by a maiden century from opener Ed Cowan in a record stand of 259, and then by Mike Hussey‘s 86 not out, Clarke’s 218 helped lift Australia from 40 for three when he took to the crease on Sunday to 487 for four when stumps were drawn.

It was Clarke’s sixth test century, and his third double hundred, in the 15 tests since he was named captain last year in the wake of the Ashes humiliation and Australia’s quarter-final exit at the World Cup.

Although by no means a chanceless knock, the 31-year-old played with patience when South Africa’s vaunted pacemen got anything out of the Gabba track before punishing anything loose with some fine shot-making.

When he carried his bat back to the pavilion at the end of the day to the raucous cheers of a sparse crowd at the famous Brisbane ground, Clarke had faced 350 balls over 504 minutes and scored 21 fours.

“I’m very happy with that,” Clarke, who accumulated his 1,000 test run of the year during the innings, said in an interview on the boundary.

“I didn’t feel great at the start and I think Ed Cowan batted beautifully.

“We’re in a great position with a 30-odd lead. I’d like another 70 odd runs in the morning and then I want to have a crack with the ball. We’ll see what happens.”

Cowan departed for 136 in heartbreaking fashion just before tea, run out at the non-striker’s end when Dale Steyn got a finger to a Clarke drive that hit the stumps and the opener was caught out of his crease backing up.

RECORD PARTNERSHIP

His partnership with Clarke was an Australian record for the fourth wicket at the Gabba, beating the 245 Clarke and Mike Hussey made against Sri Lanka in 2007.

Cowan’s wicket was the only wicket to fall on the day and Hussey started pouring on the runs as if determined to get the record back for his own partnership with his captain.

The 37-year-old bucked his poor recent form against South Africa by reaching his half century off just 68 balls with a drive through long-off and was closing on a century of his own when play ended.

It was Hussey’s cut four off Morne Morkel with which Australia overhauled South Africa’s first innings tally of 450 and put themselves in with an unlikely chance of even winning a test which lost an entire day to rain on Saturday.

Clarke’s negotiation of the “nervous nineties” for his century had been fraught and he was nearly run out going for a second run that would have brought him to the hundred mark.

There were no such jitters on his approach to the two hundred mark, which he passed by slapping the ball through mid-on for two runs before giving the badge on his helmet another kiss.

Cowan’s century was a retort to those critics who have consistently questioned his place in the team since he made his debut in last year’s Melbourne test against India.

The 30-year-old lefthander reached the mark two overs after lunch by pulling a short Vernon Philander delivery for four to the square leg boundary, beginning his joyous celebrations before the ball hit the rope.

South Africa’s number one test ranking is on the line in the series, which continues with matches in Adelaide and Perth after Brisbane.

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IBM surprised by Avantor lawsuit, calls claims exaggerated

(Reuters) – IBM, which is being sued by chemicals manufacturer Avantor Performance Materials for fraud and breach of contract in connection with a software project, said the accusations were blown out of proportion and that it was surprised by the move.

“We believe the allegations in the complaint are exaggerated and misguided and are surprised that Avantor chose to file suit,” the company said late on Friday in an emailed statement.

IBM said it had “met its contractual obligations and delivered a solution that Avantor continued to use in its operations.”

Avantor, which produces chemicals and raw materials for pharmaceutical products, laboratory chemicals and chemicals used in the electronics industry, filed a lawsuit on Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey.

It said it was seeking tens of million in damages from IBM, which according to the lawsuit, had misrepresented the capabilities of a software program that runs on a platform by SAP, resulting “in a near standstill” of Avantor’s business.

(Reporting By Nicola Leske; Editing by Vicki Allen)

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Food labels multiply, some confuse consumers

FRESNO, Calif. (AP) — Want to avoid pesticides and antibiotics in your produce, meat, and dairy foods? Prefer to pay more to make sure farm animals were treated humanely, farmworkers got their lunch breaks, bees or birds were protected by the farmer and that ranchers didn’t kill predators?

Food labels claim to certify a wide array of sustainable practices. Hundreds of so-called eco-labels have cropped up in recent years, with more introduced every month — and consumers are willing to pay extra for products that feature them.

While eco-labels can play a vital role, experts say their rapid proliferation and lack of oversight or clear standards have confused both consumers and producers.

“Hundreds of eco labels exist on all kinds of products, and there is the potential for companies and producers to make false claims,” said Shana Starobin, a food label expert at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.

Eco-labels have multiplied in recent years in response to rising consumer demand for more information about products and increased attention to animal and farmworker welfare, personal health, and the effects of conventional farming on the environment.

“Credible labels can be very helpful in helping people get to what they want to get to and pay more for something they really care about,” said Urvashi Rangan, director of consumer safety at Consumer Reports. “The labels are a way to bring the bottom up and force whole industries to improve their practices.”

The problem, Rangan and other said, is that few standards, little oversight and a lot of misinformation exist for the growing array of labels.

Some labels, such as the USDA organic certification, have standards set by the federal government to which third party certifiers must adhere. Some involve non-government standards and third-party certification, and may include site visits from independent auditors who evaluate whether a given farm or company has earned the label.

But other labels have little or no standards, or are certified by unknown organizations or by self-interested industry groups. Many labels lack any oversight.

And the problem is global, because California’s products get sold overseas and fruits and vegetables from Europe or Mexico with their own eco-labels make it onto U.S. plates.

The sheer number of labels and the lack of oversight create a credibility problem and risk rendering all labels meaningless and diluting demand for sustainably produced goods, Rangan said.

Daniel Mourad of Fresno, a young professional who likes to cook and often shops for groceries at Whole Foods, said he tends to be wary of judging products just by the labels — though sustainable practices are important to him.

“Labels have really confused the public. Some have good intentions, but I don’t know if they’re really helpful,” Mourad said. “Organic may come from Chile, but what does it mean if it’s coming from 6,000 miles away? Some local farmers may not be able to afford a label.”

In California, voters this week rejected a ballot measure that would have required labels on foods containing genetically modified ingredients.

Farmers like Gena Nonini in Fresno County say labels distinguish them from the competition. Nonini’s 100-acre Marian Farms, which grows grapes, almonds, citrus and vegetables, is certified biodynamic and organic, and her raisins are certified kosher.

“For me, the certification is one way of educating people,” Nonini said. “It opens a venue to tell a story and to set yourself apart from other farmers out there.”

But other farmers say they are reluctant to spend money on yet another certification process or to clutter their product with too much packaging and information.

“I think if we keep adding all these new labels, it tends to be a pile of confusion,” said Tom Willey of TD Willey Farms in Madera, Calif. His 75-acre farm, which grows more than 40 different vegetable crops, carries USDA organic certification, but no other labels.

The proliferation of labels, Willey said, is a poor substitute for “people being intimate with the farmers who grow their food.” Instead of seeking out more labels, he said, consumers should visit a farmers’ market or a farm, and talk directly to the grower.

Since that’s still impossible for many urbanites, Consumer Reports has developed a rating system, a database and a web site for evaluating environmental and food labels — one of several such guides that have popped up recently to help consumers.

The guides show that labels such as “natural” and “free range” carry little meaning, because they lack clear standards or a verification system.

Despite this, consumers are willing to pay more for “free range” eggs and poultry, and studies show they value “natural” over “organic,” which is governed by lengthy federal regulations.

But some consumers and watchdog groups are becoming more vigilant.

In October, the Animal Legal Defense Fund filed a lawsuit against Petaluma, Calif., organic egg producer of Judy’s Eggs over “free range” claims. The company’s packaging depicts a hen ranging on green grass, and the inside reads “these hens are raised in wide open spaces in Sonoma Valley…”

Aerial photos of the farm suggest the chickens actually live in factory-style sheds, according to the lawsuit. Judy and Steve Mahrt, owners of Petaluma Farms, said in a statement that the suit is “frivolous, unfair and untrue,” but they did not comment on the specific allegations.

Meanwhile, new labels are popping up rapidly. The Food Justice label, certified via third party audits, guarantees a farm’s commitment to fair living wages and adequate living and working conditions for farmworkers. And Wildlife Friendly, another third-party audited program, certifies farmers and ranchers who peacefully co-exist with wolves, coyotes, foxes and other predators.

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Bernanke’s stamp on Fed could tie hands of successor

NEW YORK (Reuters) – President Barack Obama‘s next choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve could have his or her hands tied if Ben Bernanke and company continue to re-write the policymaking rule book at their current clip.

Under Chairman Bernanke, who is expected to step down when his current term expires in January 2014, the U.S. central bank has embraced the goal of making the historically shrouded business of setting monetary policy far more transparent.

It has adopted a string of new rules and guidelines to clarify its policy intentions, including an inflation target and a conditional vow to hold interest rates near zero until at least mid-2015.

The next step is being hotly debated now.

Fed policymakers are striving to agree on a set of economic variables, or thresholds — probably particular levels of unemployment and inflation — that would signal when the time to raise interest rates was finally drawing near.

The trick is making a credible commitment that convinces investors to keep longer-term borrowing costs low, thus stimulating the economy, while at the same time ensuring the Fed can react swiftly to changing economic realities.

The concern is that these rules and guidelines will crimp the central bank’s flexibility in years to come as it deals with the fits and starts of a protracted U.S. economic recovery.

“The more they do it over the next year, the more the next chair will be constrained,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and a former Fed economist. The “constructive ambiguity” the central bank has famously used over the years to safeguard its policy-setting discretion is slowly disappearing, he said.

PRESERVING POLICY CREDIBILITY

In battling the worst recession in decades, central banks around the world have deployed untested tools, such as large-scale bond purchases. They have also often made commitments about how, and for how long, they plan to use the tools.

Their decisions will matter for years to come.

After eight grueling years battling a severe financial crisis, the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a disappointing recovery, Fed watchers say Bernanke will likely want to step down when his second term as Fed chief expires, even if Obama wants him to stay.

But the economy is unlikely to have fully recovered by then, leaving any rate-hike cycle to his successor. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen and Lawrence Summers, a former White House economic adviser, are both considered possible top candidates for the job.

Whomever Obama nominates will be handed a rule book from the Bernanke era that will be difficult, and maybe unwise, to erase.

Though the guidelines adopted under Bernanke are not iron-clad law, “the credibility of policy actions would be at stake if they were easily overturned,” said Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

AGE OF IMPROV

If Fed officials can reach agreement, economic thresholds would replace their stated expectation that interest rates would remain near zero through at least mid-2015.

It would be the latest refinement to the Fed’s communications toolkit. In the last 16 months alone, it moved to tie low interest rates to calendar dates, adopted a formal inflation target of 2 percent, and published the policy expectations of each of its 19 policymakers. It built on that list in September when it said it expected to buy bonds until the labor market outlook improved “substantially.”

Within the Fed’s policy-making committee, however, consensus on which unemployment or inflation levels to use has proven elusive. Four top Fed officials have gone public with their own proposals, whether simply to provide a window into their tough internal debate or to sway their colleagues.

“It would be nice if we could communicate more clearly what those parameters are,” William Dudley, the influential president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last month.

“The problem of course is that it’s very hard to summarize the economy, and how you’re going to feel about the economy, through just one or two parameters,” said Dudley, who has not pitched a plan.

Yellen — who as chair would likely smooth the transition from Bernanke — could shed more light on the issue on Tuesday when she gives a speech on central bank communications.

To be sure, Bernanke’s Fed has been careful to leave itself some breathing space. The current round of bond purchases is “open-ended,” meaning there is no dollar value or timeline constraining it.

Still, the drum beat of rule changes continues.

The Fed is also considering adopting a “consensus forecast” to give investors a better sense of how policy is likely to evolve. That would build on a January decision to publish for the first time individual policymakers’ rates forecasts.

As Bernanke’s term draws to a close, the jury is still out on the effectiveness of the new transparency steps.

“It is the improvisation stage,” Reinhart said, “and it does feel unsatisfying.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Leslie Adler)

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Israel kills Gaza rocket crewman in second day of clashes

GAZA (Reuters) – An Israeli air strike killed a Palestinian militant in the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip on Sunday as a surge in cross-border violence entered its second day, local officials said.

Islamic Jihad, a smaller faction than Hamas which often operates independently, identified the dead man as one of its own, saying he was a member of a rocket crew hit by an Israeli missile in Jabalya, northern Gaza.

The Israeli military confirmed carrying out an air strike in the area. The death brought to six the number of Palestinians killed by Israel since four of its troops were hurt in a missile attack on their jeep along the Gaza boundary fence.

Islamic Jihad said it had fired 70 short-range rockets and mortar bombs across the border since Saturday, salvoes which drove Israeli residents to blast shelters. At least one Israeli, in the town of Sderot, was wounded, ambulance workers said.

Israel described the jeep ambush as part of a Palestinian strategy of trying to curb its countermeasures against possible cross-border infiltration. Israeli forces often mount hunts for tunnels and landmines on the inside of the Gaza boundary, creating a no-go zone for Palestinians.

“Of course we don’t accept their attempt to change the rules,” Defence Minister Ehud Barak told Israel’s Army Radio.

“The essence of the struggle is over the fence. We intend to enable the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) to work not just on our side but on the other side as well.”

Palestinians said four of Saturday’s dead were civilians hit by an Israeli tank shell while paying respects at a crowded mourning tent in Gaza’s Shijaia neighborhood. Israel denies targeting civilians.

The bloodshed puts internal pressure on Hamas, which, though hostile to the Jewish state, has sat out some of the recent rounds of violence as it tried to consolidate its Gaza rule and reach out to neighboring Egypt and other foreign powers.

Israel blames Hamas for any attacks emanating from Gaza, but has shown little appetite for a major sweep of the territory which might strain its own fraught ties to the new Islamist-rooted government in Cairo.

(Writing by Dan Williams; Reporting by Nidal al-Mughrabi; Editing by Todd Eastham)

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